Ukraine Situation – The chess game has just begun

(26 February 2014)

By Ian Brockwell

You can be fairly sure that the United States and Europe are secretly celebrating what they feel is a tremendous victory in the battle for Ukraine. However, you can be just as certain that their celebrations are more than a little premature.

Like most of the “revolutions” we have seen in recent years, the protestors (rebels) are supported and financed by the United States and other interested parties (like Britain for example). We all know that the purpose of encouraging Ukraine to become more pro-European is not about helping the citizens of that country to enjoy a better life, or bringing that much used word “democracy” to them either.

The battle for Ukraine is a simple one. The west (especially America) want to move ever closer to Russia, with a plan to force their version of “democracy” on this country as well. They will of course deny that their main interests are the resources that this country possesses (and the elimination of a powerful rival).

Russia’s interest is of a more defensive nature, in that they want to keep as much distance from Europe as possible (for security reasons). So it is natural that they are concerned about Ukraine’s future (as it could affect their own).

Whilst the United States and Europe have achieved some initial success, there is a long way to go and a great deal can happen in the next few weeks and months. President Putin has already shown how good he is at playing political chess and there is no doubt he has many more moves available.

Putin was prepared to offer much needed financial assistance to Ukraine, but this will obviously be put on hold because of the uncertainty of the political situation in Ukraine at the moment. And why should Putin support a country that may fall into the European fold? If Europe is so keen to “take” Ukraine, they can pay for it!

Russia could suspend their gas supply through Ukraine (because of a payment default) and this would seriously affect many countries in Europe who rely on this supply.

Alternatively, Russia could wait until citizens of Ukraine (with Russian passports) are harmed or killed in this conflict, and send in a military force to protect them. The United States has warned them not to, but would they risk starting a World War by attempting to stop them?

Ukraine could of course be split into two halves, the west joining Europe and the east remaining with Russia. But the people of Ukraine seem reluctant for this to happen and this is a view shared by the United States and Russia.

At the end of the day the Ukrainian people are the ones that will suffer the most and can expect a shortage of food and money over the coming weeks. They will have to decide whether to wait for some possible help from Europe, or take the offer already made by Putin, but they can’t expect both.

Personally, I expect gas supplies to be an issue first, but would certainly not rule out Russian military action. Maybe it is time for Russia to see if the United States is prepared to ‘walk the walk’ and take on a country that can fight back.

 

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